Presidential candidate of the Accord Party, Dr Gbenga Olawepo-Hashim, has said his proposed ₦605 per litre petrol price would only be the starting point of a broader energy policy capable of eventually reducing the cost of petrol to between ₦200 and ₦300 per litre.
Hashim, who has been campaigning on an “energy security first” agenda, said Nigeria could achieve cheaper petrol without returning to the opaque subsidy regime that existed before the 2023 reform. In a statement issued on Monday, he argued that the central question should not simply be the international price of petrol, but the actual cost of producing crude, refining it and delivering petroleum products to Nigerian consumers.
Explaining the figures behind his proposed starting price, Hashim’s campaign used a domestic crude production benchmark of $45 per barrel, comprising a standard industry upper-limit cost of $30 plus a $15 margin. The campaign added estimated refining costs of $5 per barrel, while distribution, transportation and insurance were put at about $7 per barrel, bringing the illustrative benchmark to approximately $57 per barrel.
Using the conventional 159-litre barrel benchmark, the campaign calculated that $57 divided by 159 litres gives approximately $0.36 per litre. At an illustrative exchange rate of ₦1,400 to the dollar, this translates to roughly ₦502 per litre. An Energy Stabilisation Tax of about ₦104 per litre was then proposed, producing a figure close to Hashim’s targeted ₦605 per litre.
However, the campaign acknowledged that the calculation should be regarded as a benchmark rather than a complete refinery cost calculation because a barrel of crude does not produce 159 litres of petrol alone. Crude oil is refined into a basket of products, including petrol, diesel, aviation fuel, LPG and other outputs. Hashim’s broader argument is therefore centred on reducing the underlying cost of Nigeria’s entire petroleum value chain.
Hashim said an Accord administration in 2027 would ensure that Nigerians do not pay more than approximately ₦605–₦610 per litre for petrol at the beginning of its tenure. He called for an independent forensic audit of the petroleum value chain covering crude exploration and production, contracting, procurement, security, transportation, refining, storage, insurance, pipelines and distribution.
“Show Nigerians the books. Publish the production cost. Publish refinery cost. Publish transportation. Publish insurance. Publish every margin. Let the data speak,” Hashim said.
The Accord candidate also questioned whether Nigerians should automatically bear every international opportunity cost attached to crude produced domestically. He argued that the country should distinguish between the cost of producing energy in Nigeria and the international market value of the resource, describing the conventional justification for subsidy removal as “accounting magic” when applied without establishing the actual domestic cost structure.
Hashim said Nigeria’s expanding refining capacity provides an opportunity to fundamentally change the country’s petroleum economics. He proposed stronger support for large-scale and modular refineries, regional refining facilities, petrochemical plants, storage infrastructure and crude evacuation systems, stressing that domestic refining should not only eliminate imports but also reduce energy costs, retain value within Nigeria and support industrialisation.
“We must stop exporting cheap energy and importing expensive products. Nigeria must refine more, manufacture more and export more value-added energy products,” he said, while warning that increased refinery capacity alone would not solve the problem if domestic refineries could not access adequate crude at competitive prices.
On the exchange-rate component of his proposal, Hashim advocated a naira-dollar range of approximately ₦525–₦700 to the dollar, arguing that a stronger and more stable naira would reduce the domestic cost of imported equipment, technology and other dollar-linked inputs across the energy sector. He said the combination of lower crude production costs, efficient domestic refining and a stronger naira could eventually push petrol prices towards ₦200–₦300 per litre.
Hashim said the ultimate objective was not simply to make petrol cheaper but to use affordable energy to reduce the cost of transportation, agriculture, manufacturing, mining and other productive activities. According to him, government should generate more revenue from an expanding productive economy rather than depend heavily on high energy prices.
“The best revenue strategy is not to make everything expensive. It is to make Nigerians more productive and her manufacturers more competitive,” he added.
The Accord presidential candidate said the 2027 presidential election should compel Nigerians to examine competing economic models rather than focus solely on personalities. He maintained that the success of his proposed energy policy would be measured not only by petroleum revenue but by whether Nigerians become more productive as energy becomes more affordable.
“₦605 is where we start. ₦200–₦300 is where we can go. The route is not magic. It is lower production costs, domestic refining, a stronger naira, greater energy production and a government that understands that affordable energy is an investment in national productivity,” Hashim said.
