Nigerian businessman and investor Femi Otedola has projected that the naira could strengthen to trade below ₦1,000 to the US dollar ($1) before the end of 2026, citing improved domestic refining capacity as a catalyst for enhanced foreign exchange stability.
In a statement on social media, Otedola linked his projection to the Dangote Petroleum Refinery reaching full operational capacity, noting that increased local production of refined petroleum products will significantly reduce Nigeria’s import burden and ease pressure on foreign exchange markets.
“With the Dangote Refinery now producing at its full capacity of 650,000 barrels per day, Nigeria’s reliance on imported refined products will decline sharply,” Otedola said. “This structural shift in supply dynamics has the potential to conserve foreign exchange and support a stronger naira, with a trading level below ₦1,000 per dollar achievable by year‑end.”
Drivers of the Forecast
Analysts say Otedola’s outlook reflects a broader optimism about improvements in Nigeria’s oil value chain. The Dangote Refinery, one of the largest in Africa, has been anticipated to disrupt traditional fuel import patterns and help shore up the country’s foreign exchange liquidity.
Otedola also highlighted ongoing expansion plans for the refinery, including a proposed investment of $12 billion to increase capacity to 1.4 million barrels per day and to expand petrochemical output. He argues these measures could further reduce import dependence and unlock additional FX support.
Despite the optimistic forecast, the naira has continued to face volatility in both official and parallel foreign exchange markets. In recent months, the currency has traded well above the ₦1,000 mark against the dollar, reflecting persistent macroeconomic pressures, including inflationary trends, external account challenges, and broad market sentiment.
Foreign exchange analysts stress that while improvements in refining capacity could alleviate some pressures, exchange rate dynamics are shaped by multiple factors — including crude oil prices, capital inflows, remittances, fiscal policy, and central bank interventions.
Otedola’s projection injects a bullish narrative into discussions around Nigeria’s economic trajectory. Whether the naira will achieve sub‑₦1,000 levels will depend on a confluence of structural reforms, sustained crude earnings, and effective FX management by policymakers.
