Says destruction is comparable to a financial sector collapse
The Foundation for Peace Professionals (PeacePro) has raised serious concerns over what it describes as a deep-seated structural crisis in Nigeria’s agricultural sector, estimating that farmers have lost nearly ₦5 trillion (about $4 billion) in productive capital over the past two years.
In a statement signed by its Executive Director, Abdulrazaq Hamzat, the organisation attributed the losses to policy-driven price crashes, inaccurate and misleading weather forecasts issued by the Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NiMet), and widespread market distortions. PeacePro emphasized that the figure represents direct capital destruction at the producer level and excludes broader knock-on effects such as inflationary pressures, GDP contraction, foreign exchange stress, and security-related costs.
According to the group, Nigeria’s approach to food price management in 2024–2025 failed to stabilize the sector. Instead, poorly sequenced policy interventions, price suppression strategies, weak market coordination, and unreliable meteorological guidance compelled farmers to sell below production costs, eroding the capital base needed to sustain future farming cycles.
PeacePro stressed that the situation amounted to a policy-induced shock rather than a normal market adjustment, effectively transferring value away from producers.
While noting that an estimated 38–40 million Nigerians are engaged in agriculture, the organisation clarified that the most acute losses were borne by market-oriented producers rather than subsistence farmers, though the latter were also negatively impacted particularly by flawed weather forecasts. The hardest-hit group comprises approximately 6–8 million small and medium-scale commercial farmers, including storage-constrained, price-taking producers involved in grains, tubers, vegetables, and legumes that supply urban and regional markets.
Hamzat explained that repeated price collapses over two consecutive production cycles resulted in cumulative capital losses nearing ₦5 trillion, even under conservative estimates.
PeacePro likened the magnitude of the damage to a financial sector collapse, noting that unlike bank or stock market crises, this one unfolded quietly within farms and rural communities.
The organisation warned that the depletion of farmer capital is likely to translate into reduced planting in 2026, constrained domestic food supply, higher future food prices, escalating rural poverty, and heightened social instability.
PeacePro therefore called on authorities to formally acknowledge the scale of agricultural capital erosion and urgently recalibrate policy away from short-term price suppression toward producer protection, capital preservation, and market stability.
“No nation can undermine its farmers and remain food secure,” the statement concluded, warning that Nigeria risks severe consequences if policies that treat farmers as buffers against inflation are not promptly corrected.
